Sim Series ACC Tournament: What if Teddy Hawkins Never Tore His ACL?
We're using WhatIfSports.com to simulate the 2017-18 BC season to see if a healthy Eagles team could have made a run to the NCAA Tournament.
Series Note: Using the What If Sports engine, we are simulating BC’s 2017-18 season from the point where Deontae “Teddy” Hawkins tore his ACL. The Illinois State grad transfer will remain in the Eagles’ rotation the entire season, and we have set the target minutes for each player based on BC’s actual games with Hawkins in the lineup. We are releasing outcomes and recaps of BC’s simulate games (five at a time).
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Part VI Recap (Click here to read in full):
BC’s regular season success peaked in Raleigh, N.C. The Eagles outlasted North Carolina State after a back-and-forth second half, recording their fourth consecutive win—the program’s longest ACC regular season win streak since 2008-09. Then, things took a turn for the worse. Jim Christian’s team dropped its final three games of the conference slate, starting with a 19-point loss at Miami. Syracuse’s Oshae Brissett and Tyus Battle spoiled BC’s home finale, and the Eagles let an eight-point halftime lead go to waste against Florida State.
Stuck at 20 wins, the Eagles (20-11, 10-8 Atlantic Coast) enter the ACC Tournament as the seven seed. Now on the NCAA Tournament buble, the Eagles are in a desperate need of a win to snap their losing streak and, more importantly, boost their resume.
The Bracket
Since the ACC expanded to 15 teams in 2013-14, the top-nine seeds have received a first-round bye in the tournament. That includes BC in this simulated universe. Unlike the team’s actual 2017-18 season, the Eagles won’t have to win four straight games to reach the title game. Still, the journey to the top is practically just as difficult. In the second round, BC gets the winner of 10th-seeded Louisville and 15th-seeded Pittsburgh. The Panthers became just the second ACC team since 1988 to finish the regular season winless in conference play. And the Cardinals got off to a 4-1 start against league opponents before slipping to a .500 ACC record.
In all likelihood, the Eagles will get Louisville, and if they top the Cardinals, they’ll head to the quarterfinals to face second-seeded Duke. It’s hard enough to upset Duke once—before BC’s Dec. 9 win, the Eagles were 2-20 all-time against the Blue Devils—doing it twice in the same season is almost unfathomable. But anything can happen in March.
The top four seeds are Virginia, Duke, Clemson, and Miami, all of whom won at least 11 ACC regular season games and have earned a double-bye in the competition.
First-Round Action
Two of the three matchups resulted in double-digit blowouts. Louisville handed Pittsburgh a 83-65 loss, shutting the door to the Panthers’ worst season in program history. In similar fashion, Syracuse pummeled Wake Forest, 87-67, picking up its eighth league victory of the year and keeping its NCAA Tournament hopes alive. The only close first-round bout was the first of the day: a four-point Georgia Tech win over Notre Dame. Josh Pastner’s team sent the Irish packing, ending Notre Dame’s three-year streak of NCAA Tourney appearances.
March 7 vs. Louisville: (7) BC 83, (10) Louisville 81.
During the teams’ Jan. 21 meeting—a 79-74 Louisville win—BC coughed up the ball 17 times. This time around, the Eagles once again struggled with turnovers, racking up 16 in the second-round affair. Not only that, but BC shot just 7-of-29 (24.1 percent) from downtown. Still, Christian’s crew found a way to eek out a much-needed win. Jerome Robinson—who led the Eagles with 25 points—and Teddy Hawkins—who finished with 14 points and 15 rebounds—registered BC’s first five field goals of the day. But the pairing of Deng Adel and Quentin Snider, which combined for 40 points, allowed the Cardinals to go toe-to-toe with BC in the early stages of regulation.
That’s how most of the first half went. The teams traded buckets and mini scoring spurts, with Louisville taking a 42-41 lead into the break. It was more of the same in the second period. What culminated was a dramatic final 1:20 of regulation. First, Robinson drilled a jumper to tie the game at 81 points apiece. Adel misfired on the ensuing possession, but ultimately no damage was done after the Eagles missed back-to-back 3-pointers on the other end. With 12 seconds left, Anas Mahmoud pulled down the rebound and took the ball the length of the floor before coming up short on an eight-foot jumper. Ky Bowman was there for the board, and BC immediately called timeout. Out of the inbound with two seconds on the clock, Bowman received a pass in the left corner and drilled the game-winning jumpshot at the buzzer. The losing streak is over.
BC’s Sim Record: 21-11, 10-8 ACC
March 8 vs. Duke: (2) Duke 98, (7) BC 76.
Any time a team shoots 60 percent from deep, they’re going to be difficult to beat. And when that team is Duke—well, you’re in for a long day. That was the case for Christian and the Eagles. Grayson Allen made three triples in the first four minutes and change, scoring 11 of the Blue Devils’ first 16 points. Duke rolled out to a 16-6 lead and maintained its double-digit advantage throughout most of the first half, at one point stretching it to 18 points. BC stitched together both an 8-0 and 7-0 run, drawing within 10 or fewer points each time, but the Blue Devils always had an answer. Duke entered intermission with a 52-39 lead, and it wasn’t budging.
The first few moments of the second half breathed life into the Eagles’ bench, as a Nik Popovic fadeaway and Bowman 3-pointer cut the Eagles’ deficit to eight. Right on cue, however, Duke ripped off a 9-0 run. The Blue Devils finished with six players in double figures. It didn’t matter who had the ball—Allen, Gary Trent Jr., Marvin Bagley III, Trevon Duval, or even Alex O’Connell—Duke was firing on all cylinders offensively. Midway through the final frame, Duval jumpstarted a 13-6 run with an old-fashioned 3-point play—the beginning of the end of BC’s short ACC Tournament run. Duke outscored the Eagles, 24-13, in the back half of the period, avenging its Dec. 9 loss and advancing to the semifinals.
BC’s Sim Record: 21-12, 10-8 ACC
Who won the ACC Tournament?
The biggest upset of the tournament belonged to 11th-seeded Syracuse, which handed third-seeded Clemson an 11-point loss in the quarterfinals. It’s fitting that the Orange—a program that made the Final Four as a 10-seed in 2015-16—pulled off a run to the conference tournament semis with three straight victories. The streak came to an end against Duke, though, and Virginia beat North Carolina on the other side of the bracket to set up a Cavaliers-Blue Devils showdown in the title game. UVA, soon to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, took home the championship—just like it did in the actual 2017-18 season—defeating Duke, 78-65.
What’s Next?
BC notched its first conference tourney win since 2014-15 after a first-round bye, snapping its three-game skid and adding one last achievement to its NCAA Tournament resume. At 21-12 (10-8 ACC), the Eagles have tied their 2010-11 counterparts, as far as win total is concerned. But remember, that BC team tallied its final victory in the opening round of the NIT. This iteration of Eagles has top-25 wins against the top three teams in the ACC, one of which came on the road against eventual conference champion UVA. Has BC done enough to earn its first bid to The Dance since 2008-09? You’ll find out.
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