Sim Series Introduction: What if Teddy Hawkins Never Tore His ACL?
We're using WhatIfSports.com to simulate the 2017-18 BC season to see if a healthy Eagles team could have made a run to the NCAA Tournament.
Boston College men’s basketball hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2008-09, but the Eagles weren’t too far off a bid a few years ago. In 2017-18, the Eagles rode the backcourt duo of Jerome Robinson and Ky Bowman to a 19-16 record and a NIT appearance—the program’s first trip to the postseason since 2010-11. It remains BC’s lone winning season during Jim Christian’s six-year head coaching tenure, and it sure was eventful.
After following a forgettable but historic 0-18 ACC season in 2015-16 with a nine-win campaign in 2016-17, the Eagles really had nowhere to go but up in 2017-18. They stormed out of the gates, winning five of their first six games. Then they pulled off one of the program’s biggest upsets to date with a thrilling victory over then-No. 1 and undefeated Duke. BC started 10-3 and, although Christian’s team—heavily dependent on the trio of Robinson, Bowman, and Jordan Chatman—lacked depth, the Eagles found themselves in nearly every game.
BC tallied seven ACC regular season wins, more than the program logged in the previous three years combined, and stitched together a surprising conference tournament run. With victories over Georgia Tech and fifth-seeded North Carolina State, BC advanced to the ACC semis, winning back-to-back ACC Tourney games for the first time since 2005-06. The Eagles missed out on the dance and suffered a first-round exit in the NIT, leaving fans wanting more.
Many asked the same question: What if Deontae “Teddy” Hawkins didn’t go down with a season-ending ACL tear against Nebraska in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge?
At the time, the Illinois State grad transfer was one of three ACC players averaging a double-double (13.6 points and 10.3 rebounds per game). Standing 6-foot-8, Hawkins gave the Eagles size down low. But he was more than just a body—Hawkins was a stretch four with a dangerous faceup game, especially on the block. He shot 34.8 percent from deep, too.
Looking back, there were a lot of games that could have gone BC’s way. The Eagles lost four ACC games by five or fewer points, including a one-point heartbreaker at Virginia—the eventual No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. All but one of BC’s five starters played at least 79 percent of the team’s minutes, and the Eagles ranked fourth-to-last nationally in bench minutes, according to KenPom.
So what if Hawkins never got hurt? Well, that’s what we’re going to find out.
Using the What If Sports engine, we’ll simulate BC’s 2017-18 campaign from the point where Hawkins tore his ACL. The versatile forward will remain in the Eagles’ rotation the entire season, and we’ll set the target minutes for each player based on BC’s actual games with Hawkins in the lineup.
We’ll release outcomes and recaps of BC’s simulated games (five at a time). Be sure to follow along and subscribe to find out if a healthy version of the 2017-18 Eagles really had what it takes to make the NCAA Tournament.
Before we jump into this experiment, let’s refresh ourselves. Here’s what went down in the first four weeks of BC’s 2017-18 season:
*These games will not be simulated.
Nov. 10 vs. Maine (season opener): BC 85, Maine 65.
Maine tried to outshoot the Eagles—a trend among BC’s non-conference opponents in 2017-18—chucking up 18 attempts from beyond the arc in the first half. Only five fell, and BC took a seven-point lead into the break, thanks to the interior presence of Hawkins and a new and improved Nik Popovic. Bowman and Robinson got going in the second period, but the Eagles’ frontcourt powered them to victory. Even Johncarlos Reyes chipped in 12 points.
Nov. 12 vs. South Carolina State: BC 91, SC State 52.
In just his second career game, Steffon Mitchell piled up 21 points—a mark he wouldn’t reach again until this year. The 6-foot-8 forward shot 7-of-9 from the field and recorded seven of the Eagles’ whopping 18 offensive boards. BC knocked down six of its first seven 3-pointers and ended the game 12-of-27 (44.4 percent) from long range. With a 49-22 advantage on the glass, the Eagles coasted to a 39-point win, their largest margin of victory since Jan. 12, 2008.
Nov. 14 vs. Sacred Heart: BC 73, SHU 53.
Sacred Heart jumped out to a 13-5 lead and used a 12-2 first-half run to restore its eight-point lead later in the period, as Joseph Lopez bullied Popovic down low. But Hawkins—who knocked down three 3-pointers in the half and finished with 22 points—kept BC afloat. Bowman sparked a 25-8 run at the start of the second period, while his backcourt partner never found his rhythm. Robinson shot 1-of-14 from the floor, a cause for concern in the Eagles’ 20-point win.
Nov. 18 vs. Texas Tech (HoF Tip-Off Tournament, neutral site): Texas Tech 75, BC 64.
BC got its first taste of real competition at Mohegan Sun Arena. Texas Tech—an Elite Eight team in 2017-18—capitalized on the Eagles’ early-game shooting struggles to take a 12-point lead in the opening frame. Once again, Hawkins piloted a comeback, jumpstarting a 18-5 run. The Red Raiders reclaimed the lead by half, and although BC hung around for most of the second period, turnovers and a red-hot Keenan Evans (29 points) were too much to overcome.
Nov. 19 vs. La Salle (HoF Tip-Off Tournament, neutral site): BC 82, La Salle 61.
The Eagles failed to shake the turnover bug in the first half, coughing up the ball nine times. On the backs of B.J. Johnson and Pookie Powell, La Salle took a 17-13 lead. Eventually, though, BC righted the ship. Popovic—who had 18 points on the day, then a career high—was the center of the Eagles’ offensive revival. BC rounded out the half on a 10-0 run and didn’t look back. Robinson scored 21 points in the second period, and BC distanced itself from the Explorers.
Nov. 22 vs. Colgate: BC 83, Colgate 79.
A Colgate team one season away from its first NCAA Tournament appearance in 23 years rolled out to a 13-2 lead, courtesy of undersized center Dana Batt. BC fought back, and both teams began to swap baskets. Colgate hit five triples in the final stages of the opening frame to go up, 41-27. Down 15 points with about seven minutes to go, the Eagles flipped the switch. Robinson ignited a 27-8 run, notching 19 second-half points and helping BC escape with a win.
Nov. 25 @ Providence: Providence 86, BC 66.
The Friars—who were bounced in the first round of the NCAA Tournament that year—shot 59.3 percent from the field and 55.6 percent from downtown, humbling a 5-1 BC team playing in its first true road game of the season. A heavy dose of Hawkins and nine offensive boards kept BC in the game during the early stages of play. But 19-6 and 12-4 Providence runs at the end of the first period and the start of the second frame, respectively, put this one out of the Eagles’ reach.
Featured Graphic by Bradley Smart, Images Courtesy of BC Athletics