Notes & Weekend Preview: Virginia
The Eagles close out the regular season with a three-game set against a surging Cavaliers team.
After the Eagles were mathematically eliminated from the race for the ACC Championship last weekend, they dropped a sloppy midweek game to Merrimack and enter the final weekend of the year just hoping to end a disappointing season on a high note.
They welcome in Virginia, who has been white-hot since starting the year just 4-11 in conference play. The Cavaliers have turned it around since the calendar flipped to April, taking series’ from Georgia Tech, Clemson, Duke, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest. The impressive run has vaulted them to one game within .500 in conference play (16-17) and they enter the weekend tied or within a game of seven different schools in the win column.
Few team notes before a breakdown of Virginia:
Sal Frelick missed Tuesday’s midweek game due to tightness in his hamstring, but he was cleared to play and held out largely as a precaution. The junior and expected first-round pick will be back in the lineup against the Cavaliers to finish out his BC career.
Dante Baldelli went 3-for-5 against the Warriors to continue an excellent season. He’s now hitting .315 on the year and in the second half of the season has slashed .333/.391/.449 with an OPS+ of 109 that only trails the big three of Frelick, Cody Morissette, and Luke Gold.
Speaking of Morissette, he’s on an impressive 13-game hitting streak and has firmly re-established himself as one of the conference’s best hitters after missing time due to injury. He’s hitting .345 over his last 22 games with 10 extra-base hits.
BC’s bullpen has had a plethora of tough games this year, but it seems to finally be rounding a corner. In 24 innings in May, the Eagles’ relievers have a 3.00 ERA (third in the ACC) and just four walks. That’s a stark contrast to April (7.59 ERA, 16 BB%) and March (7.92 ERA, 1.89 WHIP).
When are the games and how can I watch them?
The series, since it’s the last of the season, is shifted up a day from usual. Thursday’s first pitch is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. and will be aired on ACC Network Extra. Friday and Saturday will also be on ACC Network Extra at 2 p.m. and 11 a.m., respectively.
Virginia’s Projected Lineup
The Cavaliers have a single hitter over .3001 but it has been a tale of two halves for the team. Virginia struggled mightily at the plate in the early going, hitting just .232 in February (82 OPS+) and .218 in March (81 OPS+). When April arrived, though, the Cavaliers kicked it into a different gear. Virginia raised its team average by 67 points and has kept it at that level in May so far too.
During that stretch it’s hard to single out a single good player—the lineup as a whole has impressed. In the first two months, the Cavaliers had a single player with an OPS above .800. In the last two, they’ve had five. Zack Gelof leads the way with a .337 batting average as he’s putting the ball in play constantly, posting a 11 K% and 6 BB% and a team-high 21 runs created. He’s also hit four home runs over that span, tied with Kyle Teel for the team lead. Devin Ortiz (.333), Alex Tappen (.317), and Jake Gelof (.306) have all impressed once the calendar flipped to March. That’s not to say there’s not holes still, but it’s going to be a tough lineup for the Eagles’ pitching staff to work through.
Virginia Rotation
I wrote ahead of the Pittsburgh series that the Panthers had two high-end arms and a less-established third starter and they impressed over the three-game set. We could see something similar with the Cavaliers as they’ve got one of the conference’s best starters in Andrew Abbott alongside a quality No. 2 in Mike Vasil and then a lesser-known third guy in Nate Savino.
Abbott is the reigning ACC Pitcher of the Week after his part in a combined no-hitter against Wake Forest. The senior left-hander spun 7.1 hitless frames with two walks and 16 strikeouts, running his ACC-best total to 115. He’s gone seven innings in each of his last three starts and allowed just three earned runs to 38 strikeouts.
Vasil, meanwhile, has logged six quality starts this year but is coming off of a two-start skid. He gave up six runs, three earned, in 2.2 innings against Virginia Tech and then coughed up five earned runs in 2.1 innings vs. Wake Forest. Before that, Vasil had gone at least five innings in six consecutive starts, so it’ll be interesting to see which version of the strike-throwing (4.4 K/BB ratio) right-hander toes the rubber in Brighton. It’s a homecoming of sorts, too, as Vasil went to BC High and was the 2017 Massachusetts Player of the Year and top recruit in the state.
Saturday’s starter in Savino is the least-known of the bunch. The sophomore made four starts in 2020 and started three straight to open the year, but then was shifted to the bullpen for three outings. He returned to the starting role and has only improved as the year’s gone on with back-to-back impressive starts. Savino—primarily a pitch-to-contact guy with low strikeout and walk numbers—went seven innings of one-run ball against the Hokies and then allowed two over six against Wake Forest.
Virginia Bullpen
Pitching is a big strength of the Cavaliers, so it’s no surprise that they have the second best bullpen ERA in the conference, trailing only Florida State. They’re 22-2 when tied or leading after six innings, the product of a reliever core that won’t give up many runs in tight games.
Stephen Schoch, a 6-foot-5 graduate student, is an imposing presence on the mound and has locked up all seven saves for Virginia this year. Schoch has a sub-3.00 ERA and a 31 K%. He hasn’t been the relief ace for the team, though, as that honor belongs to Blake Bales. Another 6-foot-5 right-hander, Bales leads all relievers in innings pitched (35.2) and K% (38). Opponents are hitting just .148 against him throughout a team-high 22 appearances.
Other names to know are Zach Messinger, who’s good for two innings out of the pen, and Kyle Whitten as he’s second on the team in appearances. Brandon Neeck is the lone southpaw of the above group and has impressive stuff (34 K%) but is prone to giving up hard contact on occasion.
Images Courtesy of Virginia Athletics
These stats are short a single game (vs. Towson), so Kyle Teel is actually hitting .305.