Weekend Preview: No. 18/24 Florida State
The Eagles have dropped their last five conference series and are looking to right the ship in Tallahassee.
After a three-game sweep at the hands of North Carolina State, Boston College heads to Tallahassee badly needing some conference success against a ranked foe in Florida State.
The Eagles (14-16, 4-14 Atlantic Coast) have won just one of their last nine conference games, dropping series to the Wolfpack, Virginia Tech, and Clemson. This weekend will be yet another big test, as the Seminoles (16-13, 11-10) have had an up-and-down campaign but boast the conference’s best pitching staff and a power-heavy lineup.
“It’s an interesting weekend,” head coach Mike Gambino said. “They’re a really quality pitching team and our offensive numbers are very good. I know we’re going to see great arms, but I believe in our lineup against anybody.”
BC is missing four players due to COVID-19 contact tracing but have no positives on the team and were cleared to play the Seminoles, per Gambino.
When are the games and how can I watch them?
Friday’s first pitch is scheduled for 6 p.m. and will be aired on ACC Network Extra. Saturday and Sunday will also both be on ACC Network Extra at 2 p.m. and 1 p.m., respectively.
Projected lineup
Florida State (AVG/OBP/SLG, OPS+)
C) Matheu Nelson (.320/.438/.780, 167)
1B) Tyler Martin (.284/.466/.358, 113)
2B) Vince Smith (.162/.284/.309, 81)
SS) Nander De Sedas (.198/.291/.374, 91)
3B) Logan Lacey (.310/.368/.483, 117)
LF) Elijah Cabell (.250/.363/.603, 133)
CF) Reese Albert (.182/.321/.341, 91)
RF) Robby Martin (.330/.417/.545, 132)
DH) Wyatt Crowell (.246/.323/.333, 90)
The Seminoles have plenty of pop—their 41 home runs are tops in the conference—but are also an incredibly streaky team. After being walked off by No. 15 Florida on Tuesday, Florida State is 3-5 to start the month of April and hitting just .196 as a team. Still, there’s plenty of names to keep an eye on in this series.
Right fielder Robby Martin had a torrid March, posting a 140 OPS+ with five doubles and five home runs, and he’s continued that stretch into April. He strikes out almost 30 percent of the time (a recurring trend with these Seminoles hitters) but gets on base at an impressive .417 clip for the season. The biggest power bat in a lineup full of them is catcher Matheu Nelson, who’s clubbed 13 (and has seven doubles) in 27 games. First baseman Tyler Martin boasts a .466 on base percentage thanks to a disciplined approach at the plate—he has a microscopic 8 K% and a high 19 BB%.
"They’re dangerous top to bottom,” Gambino said. “Even though their strikeout numbers are high, there’s a lot of guys in the lineup that can do a lot of damage. There’s some lineups that when you see a ton of strikeouts, you feel like you can attack them, but there’s other lineups like that where you need to respect their lineup.”
A guy to keep on an eye on that might be heating up is Elijah Cabell, who people were waiting to shake the effects of a nagging injury. He’s up to eight long balls on the season with four in his last eight games, but that power surge has somehow come with a spike in his strikeout rate (it’s up to a rough 46 percent). Cabell can absolutely demolish a baseball, but eight of his 17 hits on the year are home runs which speaks to the hit-or-miss approach he’s got at the dish.
Who’s hot and who’s not?
Martin is 11-of-31 (.355) in his last nine games with a pair of doubles and two home runs. Nelson, meanwhile, is 11-of-34 (.324) and boasts a 180 OPS+ thanks to five home runs and four doubles over the same nine-game span. On the other side of the spectrum, Reese Albert—who has had some injury issues this year—is striking out a third of the time in his last 10 games and has just five hits.
Who are the starting pitchers?
Friday
With Mason Pelio unavailable, the Eagles have elevated Joe Mancini from a midweek role to the prime-time Friday night spot. Mancini has an inflated ERA thanks to the fact he gave up a seven-spot to Holy Cross, but he’s been really strong in two midweek starts against tough teams in UConn and Northeastern. In those outings, Mancini totaled 10 innings of two-run ball and allowed just six hits, three walks, and five strikeouts.
“We have a ton of confidence in him and he’s throwing the ball great,” Gambino said of Mancini. “He started here on a Saturday a couple years ago so he pitched here. We’ve always believed he was going to turn into a quality ACC weekend starter and he’s becoming that guy.”
He’ll face off against Florida State’s ace, Parker Messick. The southpaw was lights out in a late-innings relief role last season (19 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings) and has flourished as the Seminoles’ Friday night starter. Recently named to the Golden Spikes Watch List, Messick has 69 strikeouts to just 13 walks across eight starts and 45 innings. He’s got four games of double-digit strikeouts, all in ACC play, and half of his outings have been quality starts. In conference play, Messick is the top starter by ERA (1.69) and second only to Duke’s Cooper Stinson in batting average against (.183).
Saturday
Emmet Sheehan has taken over the mantle as the staff ace, spinning six quality starts in eight outings this year. Outside of a tough appearance against Auburn, Sheehan has been excellent. Remove that eight-run, two-inning start and he has a 31 K% and 8 BB% over 44 1/3 innings. The Florida State lineup shapes up well for Sheehan’s high strikeout numbers.
Sheehan draws left-hander Bryce Hubbart, who has similar numbers to him on the season. Hubbart started the year in the bullpen with a pair of good outings and moved into a starting role for the second ACC series of the year against Virginia. Since then, Hubbart’s turned in some gems (six scoreless against the Cavaliers) but also labored at times. His last start against Louisville was a tough one, as he issued six walks—after just eight in his previous 28 1/3 innings—and gave up four earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings. Still, it seems like those control issues are an anomaly, as he has 33 K% and 9 BB% on the season.
Sunday
In two starts in April, Alex Stiegler has struck out 14 in 14 innings of work with just two walks. Those outings came against Virginia Tech and North Carolina State, two strong lineups, so the Eagles are hoping Stiegler can keep it up against the Seminoles. Across 39 innings this season, Stiegler has fanned 47 and issued just eight walks.
Messick and Hubbart are both redshirt-freshman, so the tenured member of the rotation is redshirt-junior Conor Grady. In 2018, Grady started his Seminoles career as a reliever, then made eight starts and 17 relief appearances in 2019. He moved full-time to the rotation in 2020 with four starts before the season shut down and is back there this year. Grady has seen a bump in his pitching velocity this year and pounds the strike zone. He’s issued just 10 walks in 40 innings (6 BB%) and leads the staff with four wins. In two April starts against North Carolina and Louisville, Grady has a sub-1.00 WHIP and 16 strikeouts in just 12 innings.
How will the Florida State bullpen line up after the starters?
Unlike North Carolina State’s plan from last weekend—which was to keep its starters in as long as possible to avoid a dumpster fire of a bullpen—the Seminoles have a strong bullpen. Head coach Mike Martin Jr. has turned to the same arms frequently with the likes of Chase Haney, Davis Hare, Clayton Kwiatkowski, and Jonah Scolaro all making 12-plus appearances.
Haney is a redshirt senior, so it’s no surprise he leads the bullpen with 21 appearances. The 6-foot-6 right-hander has been used in big spots and has 18 strikeouts in 16 1/3 innings. Hare is another upper classman who leads the team with two saves, while Kwiatkowski is a fifth-year left-hander with a bullpen-high 37 K%. Scolaro is another southpaw used frequently and he’s a redshirt junior. As you can probably tell, a big part of the Seminoles success in the bullpen is because of their experience. The top five relief pitchers by innings pitched have all been in the college ranks for three years or more.
Images courtesy of BC and Florida State Athletics.