Weekend Preview: No. 15/NR North Carolina
The Tar Heels have won their last four conference games coming into BC's first home conference weekend series of the year.
After a run-filled midweek win over Holy Cross, No. 21 Boston College continues an eight-game homestand with a weekend series—its first home one of the year—against No. 15/NR North Carolina. The Eagles (10-5, 2-4 Atlantic Coast) suffered a sweep against Louisville last weekend and will be without Cody Morissette against the Tar Heels (10-5, 6-3). It has the makings of another intense series, though, as two similarly regarded teams square off at Harrington Athletics Village. First pitch on Friday is at 4 p.m., then 3 p.m. on Saturday and 1 p.m. on Sunday.
The Tar Heels have a good lineup, a talented rotation, and a bullpen that has been very effective outside of a few games this season. Strangely, despite taking two of three from Virginia and sweeping Clemson, UNC isn’t ranked in the D1Baseball poll. The Tar Heels dropped a weekend to No. 25 Virginia Tech and have two odd losses to Liberty in head coach Scott Forbes’ first season, but otherwise have been strong.
The strength of this team is arguably the pitching—they’re coming off a weekend against the Tigers in which they allowed just 10 runs. They’re fourth in the conference in ERA (3.82) and opponents are hitting just .197 against, the top mark in the ACC. The lineup, meanwhile, gets the job done with a mix of freshman and experienced returnees. Still, Forbes noted after a win against Virginia that the team is built to win games on the strength of pitching and defense—something that could be interesting against an Eagles team that has thrived in high-scoring matchups but has endured some struggles in close games.
Center fielder Justice Thompson, a JUCO transfer from Northwest Florida, is off to an absolutely electric start to the year. Thompson, hitting anywhere from second to fourth in the order, is slashing .397/.485/.672 with four home runs, four doubles, seven stolen bases. He also plays plus defense in the outfield. The leadoff spot is held down by Angel Zarate, a left fielder who has reached base in 35 consecutive games and is reaching base at a .433 clip.
Outside of those two, though, it’s been an up-and-down start to the year. Clemente Inclan has made a strong push into the lineup with an ACC Player of the Week honor last week after hitting home runs in four straight games, while freshman catcher Tomas Frick has jumped into the starting role and six-spot in the order. Regulars Brent Centracchio (.812 OPS), Johnny Castagnozzi (.607), and Danny Seretti (.678) have struggled to find consistency. The biggest issue for the Tar Heels has been their susceptibility to strike out—they’ve fanned 153 times in 15 games, a 10.2 per game mark that’s third-highest in the conference.
The weekend matchup between Thompson and Frelick, two high-octane center fielder’s, should be a good one. Frelick has the edge in batting average and runs created, while Thompson boasts a higher OPS and wOBA. They both play the game with such energy that it should be very entertaining to watch as the weekend progresses.
The edge on the mound goes to the Tar Heels, as they trot out three starters who have had more success to date than the Eagles. BC hasn’t had a weekend where both Mason Pelio and Emmet Sheehan are firing on all cylinders and head coach Mike Gambino will hope this weekend is the one.
UNC ace Austin Love was a freshman All-American as a reliever back in 2019, then struggled in 2020, but that’s a distant memory now. He’s firmly in the rotation and the undisputed ace of the staff, posting a sub-2.50 FIP with very few walks and high strikeout numbers. He pitched into the eighth against Clemson last weekend, allowing three earned runs with 12 strikeouts and zero walks. Love has a 91-95 MPH fastball, a power changeup at 87-90 that causes left-handed hitters fits, and an 83-86 MPH slider. There’s rumors of a curveball being added to the arsenal, but for now, he has the profile of a legitimate Friday night ace.
Saturday’s starter, Max Carlson, is a freshman described as a “polished low-90s strike-thrower” who got off to a good start but has some control issues as of late. In his last two starts—against Virginia Tech and Clemson—Carlson has walked 11 and allowed seven earned runs in 9.1 innings of work. That’s a stark contrast to his first two outings—against Virginia and James Madison—where he had a 13:2 K/BB ratio and allowed three earned runs in 12 innings.
Sunday belongs to Max Alba, someone that Forbes pegged as having a breakout season in 2021. He’s worked back from Tommy John surgery in 2018 to earn a spot in the rotation and is coming off his longest start of the year—7.2 innings of three-run ball with nine strikeouts against Clemson. Alba’s been on campus for a while, too, as he redshirted in 2019 and had 10.1 innings of work in 2020.
Forbes has only used five relievers in conference play thus far and three of them have registered saves. Southpaw Caden O’Brien has two of them and has totaled five appearances and 10 innings on the year, posting a 2.70 FIP, 34 K%, and 5 BB%. Nik Pry (10.1 IP, 2.42 FIP, 37 K%) and Connor Ollio (6 IP, 4.60 FIP, 32 K%) each have a save apiece and are trusted in big situations. How the Tar Heels’ bullpen fares will be especially important this weekend, as this is one of the deepest lineups they’ve faced yet and the starters might not be able to go as deep into games as they usually do.
Ultimately, it’s another high-caliber opponent for the Eagles in what is the fourth straight weekend against a ranked opponent. There’s a reason BC has the No. 10 RPI in the country in the early going. The series hinges on the Eagles being able to crack UNC’s pitching—something they struggled to do against Louisville—and getting enough from their starting rotation.
Images courtesy of UNC Athletics