Weekend Preview: No. 10/15 Louisville
Another weekend, another top-25 caliber matchup. Plus, notes on the Eagles' hitting thus far from head coach Mike Gambino.
After a dramatic weekend series win over Auburn and a midweek victory against Maine, No. 13/17 Boston College faces off against its highest-ranked opponent yet—the preseason ACC favorite in No. 10/15 Louisville. The Cardinals, fresh off of a weekend series setback against No. 7 Georgia Tech, will be looking to bounce back. Two similarly high-powered teams meet at Jim Patterson Stadium in Louisville starting on Friday night at 6 p.m., followed by a pair of 1 p.m. matinees the next two days.
Before we dive into the Cardinals and the series preview, here’s some assorted notes on the Eagles.
Pressure Throughout the Lineup
One of the main talking points from head coach Mike Gambino this season has been his team’s ability to string together consistently good at bats, whether it’s in the early innings or late in games. That was on display in the ninth inning against Auburn—when the Eagles were down to their final strike three separate times—but it has been throughout the year as well. A product of these at bats has been a power surge, as BC has already hit 18 in 11 games, and it’s a result of wearing down opposing pitchers down until they make a mistake.
“The home runs are a product of just good at bats and constant pressure throughout the game,” Gambino said. “Even in innings that we’re not scoring runs, we just put a ton of pressure on pitchers and pitching staffs. The result is then becoming a big hit, a big inning at some point in the game. That’s what I like so much. We’re not just sitting around waiting for the three-run home run.
“The goal is constant pressure, constant pressure, and then hopefully at some point they break. They might break with a couple home runs but they could also break with a couple big hits in a row.”
Gold’s Breakout Start
Before the year, I asked Gambino about second baseman Luke Gold’s potential. In his COVID-shortened freshman year, Gold earned 15 starts and showed flashes of high upside with five extra base hits but also struck out 17 times in 57 at bats. This season, we’re seeing a much more patient and smart hitter who is slashing .366/.386/.329 with five doubles, four home runs, and has cut his strikeout rate in half.
“He’s learning to hit and he’s becoming what we always believed him to be—a legitimate middle-of-the-order power bat,” Gambino said. “Somebody that can hurt you when he’s ahead in the count or when he’s behind in the count.”
Leary Earning At Bats
In the first nine games of this season, freshman Cameron Leary got to the plate just four times as a pinch hitter or defensive substitute. He’s started the last two games, though, and made the most of it. Against Auburn and Maine combined, Leary went 4-for-8 with three runs, five RBIs, a double, and two home runs. After Joe Vetrano started the year with better results on the mound than the plate, you can expect Leary to stick around in the seven-spot in the Eagles’ lineup.
“Cam was a kid at the end of the fall that we thought had a real chance to be in the lineup,” Gambino added. “Every day, we’ve been talking that we need to get Cam some at bats, we need to get him in there. We all think he’s going to be a really special player, so it doesn’t surprise me that he’s doing what he’s doing.”
Injury Update
Right fielder Dante Baldelli left Tuesday’s game after the first inning following a violent collision with the wall as he attempted to make an over-the-shoulder catch. Gambino said it was a precautionary substitution, and he’ll be back in the lineup this weekend.
On to the preview…
Statistically, this is a pretty even matchup. We know that both of these lineups are going to hit and neither team has found consistency in their weekend rotations yet. The biggest difference, though, is the gulf in stolen base numbers—both for and against. The Cardinals have swiped 40 bases and, behind All-American catcher Henry Davis, have held opposing baserunners to a 6-for-12 mark. BC, meanwhile has 17 stolen bases on the year while opponents are 12-for-16. The Eagles’ have always prided themselves on being aggressive on the basepaths but they’re coming up against a team even more opportunistic and dangerous than them.
“We like to run and be aggressive, they like to run and be aggressive. They have a tremendous defensive catcher and we have a tremendous defensive catcher,” Gambino said. “It’s very similar. They’re a fun team to play because they’re so good. They’re fundamentally sound and they do so many things well. We look at playing teams like this, the challenge of it, as really fun and exciting in a good way.”
There’s been some shuffling in the Cardinals’ lineup throughout their first 12 games of the season, but you can expect some variation of Cooper Bowman, Luke Brown, Henry Davis, Levi Usher, Cameron Masterman, and Alex Binelas in the first six spots. That’s a dangerous core group but what might be most surprising is how much Binelas—a top prospect and pick for ACC Hitter of the Year coming into this season—has struggled.
Binelas is last among regulars in batting average (.143) and wOBA (.221) and is second in strikeouts. It’s been a remarkably slow start for the junior who missed most of the shortened 2020 season due to injury but had an impressive freshman season. He’s fallen from third in the lineup to sixth or seventh.
The same struggles aren’t seen near the top, though. Bowman is an electric player whose worked his way up the lineup and hit leadoff the last four games. He leads the regulars in wOBA (.516) and is a prototypical leadoff guy, drawing seven walks to one strikeout and reaching base at a remarkable .512 clip. Davis has been the team’s most consistent player, starting in all 12 games, and he leads the team in runs created (16). Him, Bowman, and Masterman—who boasts a .506 wOBA—all have three home runs on the year. Finally, Usher might be one of the more interesting players to keep an eye on. He’s hitting just .233 but when he gets on base, he’s one of the more dangerous players in the country as he’s a perfect 13-for-13 on stolen bases.
Coming into the year, the biggest question mark around Louisville was its starting pitching. The Cardinals lost Reid Detmers and Bobby Miller, a 1-2 punch of first-round picks that could go up against anyone in the country. A converted reliever in Glenn Albanese was pegged as the team’s Friday night starter coming into this year and he impressed back in the team’s first series against Bellarmine—but we haven’t seen him since and there’s not much information out there as to why. Louisville has adjusted, with Michael Kirian (another converted reliever) impressing in the Friday night slot. Kirian paints the strike zone with a 91-94 mph fastball and a slurve in the low 80s. Saturday’s have belonged to Adam Elliott, another reliever convert who’s had a mixed-bag of results in the early going. Unlike Kirian, Elliott won’t overpower you as his fastball is in the upper 80s and he leans on a slider in the high 70s. Finally, Sunday belongs to Luke Smith, who made his name known with his strong performance at the College World Series back in 2019. Smith has struggled with control so far this year but still has a quality four-pitch mix backed up by a lot of experience.
As a result of shifting guys into starting roles, the Cardinals bullpen has thinned some. Still, Louisville has a lot of options to utilize and the bullpen is striking out 24 percent of batters it faces. Leading the charge for head coach Dan McDonnell is the duo of Kaleb Corbett and Seamus Barrett, who’ve combined for nine appearances so far. Corbett leads the bullpen in innings (9.1) and is fanning almost half the batters he faces (42%), while Barrett (6.1 IP, 41% K) has similarly strong numbers. Other key arms include Jack Perkins (6.2 IP, 4.45 FIP), Evan Webster (8 IP, 3.85 FIP), and Tate Kuehner (9 IP, 3.21 FIP).
Ultimately, this has the makings of another competitive series similar to the Duke and Auburn matchups. It’s another big one, too, which speaks to the position the Eagles find themselves in the national rankings.
“The goal is that every series is a big series,” Gambino noted. “That means you’re good. That means you’re in the mix.”
Images courtesy of Louisville Athletics / Boston College Athletics