Path to the ACC Championship (May 13)

Simulations, playoff probabilities, and the slim path to the postseason for the Eagles.

This is a longer post that bounces around different scenarios. Skip to the bottom if you’re curious for a simplified, few-sentence description of the postseason implications this weekend.

This past weekend, Boston College lost two of three to Pitt, Duke dropped two of three to Louisville, Wake Forest was playing non-conference games, and Virginia was off. It wasn’t a banner weekend for the bottom four, who find themselves lumped together in the fight for the ACC’s final playoff spots.

Eight teams have punched their ticket, leaving six to fight for the final four spots. It’s really a four-team race though; featuring Virgina, Duke, Wake Forest and BC.

Here’s how it shakes out:

With the standings in mind, I set up a (relatively) simple simulator. Using ELO ratings, which I’ve featured on the blog before, I simulated the outcome of the remaining two conference weekends 1,000 times. With a bit of math magic, I identified each team’s final position in the standings within each simulation to find the percentage of times they land in that spot.

DISCLAIMER: The ACC tiebreakers are impossible to try and code for, so they’re not fully in there (you’ll see some weird results in the middle of the pack). If you interested in how they work, check out this link. BC does hold the tiebreaker over Duke (and would over Virginia if the Eagles’ sweep them).

Essentially, Notre Dame is a lock for the top seed. The middle is pure chaos, as most of these teams have six games left and the ACC has been up-and-down this season. All the way to the right you’ll see BC and Wake Forest, who are most likely to end up in the bottom spots. Duke, meanwhile, has a very good chance of keeping hold of the 12th and final playoff berth.

The Cavaliers are in the driver’s seat for 11th with a three-game edge on the Blue Devils. But in 2 out of 1,000 simulations, the Eagles’ leapt up to snatch the 11th place spot. It’d require the Cavaliers to go winless (0-6) and fall to 13-23. That’s a .361 winning percentage, a mere two points shy of what BC’s could be at .363. Still, with Virginia facing Wake Forest this weekend, that feels unlikely.

In 33 of 1,000, BC snagged the 12th spot. That’s what Eagles’ faithful should hope for. It requires the team sweeping Virginia in the final weekend and getting some help from the Blue Devils. Should Duke go 2-4, 1-5, or 0-6 the rest of the way, the Eagles would hop them. That’s because the Blue Devils would end up at 12-21 (tied with BC, but BC holds tiebreaker), 11-22, or 10-23. But fans should still be cautious, since the Blue Devils can eliminate BC with a weekend sweep paired with a UVA win.

The Demon Deacons actually have slightly better postseason odds, but that’s simply because they have more time. Wake Forest has six games to work with, so scenarios where it takes back-to-back conference series (and BC struggles) could vault them into contention.

Too long, didn’t read:

BC is eliminated from postseason contention this weekend if Duke sweeps and Virginia wins at least 1 against Wake Forest.

That is the only scenario where the Eagles’ would see any postseason chances eliminated. Duke would be 13-17, moving four games clear of BC with three to play. Virginia, meanwhile, would be at least 14-19 and have an insurmountable 3 1/2 game lead on the Eagles.

The simulations suggest the most likely outcome this weekend is Duke taking two of three from Virginia Tech (who has lost five of its last six conference games) and the Cavaliers either taking two or sweeping Wake Forest. Here’s the breakdown:

Duke vs. Virginia Tech:

• Blue Devils sweep: 14%

• Blue Devils win two: 39%

• Blue Devils win one: 36%

• Virginia Tech sweeps: 11%

Virginia vs. Wake Forest:

• Cavaliers’sweep: 22%

• Cavaliers win two:43%

• Cavaliers win one: 29%

• Wake Forest sweeps: 6%

Personally, I think the sweep odds for Duke are artificially high. The model can’t account for the resilience of the Hokies—who bounced back with four straight non-conference wins—but we’ll see how the weekend plays out.

Statistics and tiebreakers courtesy of ACC website.