Fun with ZiPS
Dan Szymborski and Fangraphs released their MLB stat projections (coined ZiPS), so here's what the future could hold for six BC alums.
Last week, Dan Szymborski and the team over at FanGraphs released their 2020 ZiPS projections, a stat projection system for Major League Baseball players that “uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection.”
I decided to comb through these newly available projections to take a look at the six former Boston College baseball players that find their names in them, and highlight some of the interesting tidbits.
One note before we begin—and it’s something that Szymborski highlighted when releasing them—is that these projections don’t always reflect playing time. We all know Mike Trout will be in the lineup every game of the season, but what if a center field prospect in AAA for the Angels was getting significant plate appearances? As you might expect, Szymborski explained it best:
I’ve designed ZiPS to explicitly project performance that we know will never actually happen. Just to pick a random name, Bobby Dalbec has a projection of .219/.300/.404 and 0.6 WAR in 524 plate appearances. I know, you know, everyone knows that he won’t get 524 plate appearances. But I find answering the question as to how good Dalbec is as a player and what he would contribute in the majors is a far more interesting result than a .000/.000/.000, 0.0 WAR projection. The latter tells you nothing about Dalbec.
With that in mind, it’s worth a look at each of the alums that find themselves in the ZiPS data set. Additionally, ZiPS generates a player comparison for the 2020 stats (Trout’s is Mickey Mantle, for instance) so I’ve thrown those in as well. One final note—the players are in no particular order.
1) Justin Dunn, RHP, Seattle Mariners (BC 2014-16)
ZiPS Player Comparison: John Johnstone, Reliever, 1990s
Dunn climbed in the Mets’ system after being drafted 19th overall in 2016, reaching Double-A Binghamton before being sent to the Mariners in a trade that saw All-Star’s Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz go the other way. He made 25 starts with Double-A Arkansas—going 9-5 with a 3.55 ERA and 158 strikeouts in 131.2 innings pitched—before earning a September call-up. His major league debut didn’t go quite as planned as he wrestled with control, but he went on to make four starts as an opener and didn’t look overmatched. Dunn’s with the club at Spring Training in Mesa and looking to earn a spot on the Mariners’ Opening Day roster. ZiPS projects him—should he land in Seattle’s rotation—to have a respectable first full season. Dunn has a four-seam fastball that runs up to 97 mph, a strong slider, and also works in a changeup and a curveball.
2) Mike King, RHP, New York Yankees (2014-16)
ZiPS Player Comparison: Rick Wise, Starter, 2x All-Star
Just your casual headline out of spring training: “Yankees rookie Mike King is in the mix for a rotation spot” — The New York Post. Last season, New York racked up 103 wins and won the AL East, and now King, a former Eagles’ pitcher, could be in the rotation at the start of the 2020 season. With injuries popping up in the Bronx—Luis Severino is out for the season with Tommy John surgery and James Paxton is missing at least first two months because of back surgery—King is suddenly a prime candidate to slot into the Yankees rotation. The 24-year-old is described as a “sinkerballer who sits in the low 90s and mixes in a curveball and changeup” with the potential as a pitch-to-contact guy in the back of a rotation. He’s had plenty of success in the minors, holding opponents to a .238 batting average against and posting a 2.93 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 387 innings. One final note—King had the best ZiPS player comparison by far. He matched up with Rick Wise, who had an 18-year MLB career and earned a pair of All-Star nods.
3) John Gorman, RHP, Oakland Athletics (2012-15)
ZiPS Player Comparison: Weston Weber, Pitcher, Minor League Journeymen
Gorman has spent the last two years with Midland, Oakland’s Double-A affiliate, earning back-to-back All-Star appearances with the RockHounds. He’s made 85 appearances with Midland, posting a 3.71 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with 119 strikeouts over 121 innings of work. The 28-year-old, a former 31st round pick, will be trying to move up in the Athletics organization in 2020. Should he reach the majors, ZiPS sees him as an average middle reliever, boasting eight strikeouts per nine innings and a sub-5.00 FIP.
4) Eric Campbell, 1B, Oakland Athletics (2006-08)
ZiPS Player Comparison: Stu Pederson, Outfielder, 1985
Campbell—the elder statesmen on this list—has played 196 games in the majors, all with the Mets. Since entering free agency after the 2016 season, Campbell hasn’t made it back, but is currently with the A’s at Spring Training as a non-roster invitee. He’s with the club for the second spring in a row after spending all of last year in Triple-A Las Vegas. With the Aviators, Campbell slashed .276/.382/.492 in 94 games and had a career-high 16 home runs. He’s not likely to make Oakland’s Opening Day roster, and his ZiPS numbers reflect that with a .227/.310/.347 projection.
5) Chris Shaw, OF, San Francisco Giants (2013-15)
ZiPS Player Comparison: Geronimo Berroa, DH and Outfielder, 1990s
One of the more well-known former Eagles, Shaw is competing for a spot in a crowded Giants outfield. By McCovey Chronicle’s account, Shaw is an intriguing prospect who is looking to snag the final outfield spot on the roster (joining Mike Yastrzemski and the likely platoon of Hunter Pence and Alex Dickerson). His ZiPS profile is a power hitter—the 20 home runs are actually the most of any San Francisco player in 2020—with a very, very high strikeout rate (29.8 percent). Shaw got a taste of the bigs in each of the last two seasons, totaling 82 plate appearances, but hit just .153. This spring training is a big one for him as he fights to stick at the highest level.
6) Donovan Casey, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers (2015-17)
ZiPS Player Comparison: Wilkin Ramirez, Outfielder, 2009-13
Casey is in even more of a pickle than Shaw, as the Dodgers—the cream of the crop in the NL West—are absolutely loaded with talent, both in the majors and throughout the minor league ranks. He earned a promotion to Double-A Tulsa (after hitting 20 home runs at Single-A Rancho Cucamonga and earning All-Star honors) in 2019 and hit .213 in 25 games with the Drillers. The 20th-round draft pick in 2017 will start 2020 in Double-A and has four top-30 organizational prospects ahead of him in the outfield depth chart. Still, Casey’s MLB projections are interesting, as they project a power hitter (similar to Shaw) who could use some seasoning at the plate.
Images courtesy of MLB/Getty Images, Boston College Athletic Communications