ACC Elo Ratings, Week 3
N.C. State won't lose, among other things.
Through three weeks, the ACC ranks third out of 31 conferences in Elo rating, boasting an impressive 1613 average that only trails the SEC (1653) and the Big 12 (1615). The ACC has gone 113-41 in non-conference play so far, a .734 winning percentage that only the SEC can top (.772). With that in mind—and the fact that every team rates above average—here’s how the conference table shakes out.
For those who weren’t here last week: Elo ratings originated in chess and have been transplanted to other sports as a “measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent,” per FiveThirtyEight. Basically, the ratings are centered around 1500 and teams go up and down with each matchup based on both the quality of opponent and how close the game.
ACC Elo Ratings
All stats as of Monday, March 2 at 9 p.m. Other note: For now, I’ve swapped out projected record with current record as I attempt to build out a more detailed prediction system.
Quick Hits
North Carolina State furthered its lead atop the conference table with a four-win week, blowing out UNC Wilmington before sweeping through Minneapolis and beating the likes of Iowa, Purdue, and Minnesota. In 11 games, the Wolfpack has scored double-digit runs six times and racked up 10-plus hits eight times. N.C. State moved up five spots to No. 8 in the D1Baseball.com Top 25.
Clemson was knocked off by East Tennessee State midway through the week, but rebounded by taking two of three from in-state rival South Carolina. The pitching staff has been impressive—Sam Weatherly struck out 11 in seven scoreless innings on Friday night, then relievers Mat Clark and Carson Spiers spun five scoreless innings with five strikeouts to close out the Sunday matinee victory.
Louisville has started to pick up steam after losing three of its first four games. The Cardinals have won seven straight, sweeping Valparaiso and Western Michigan along the way. Louisville racked up 16 runs in a dominant weekend finale and have been powered by sophomore Levi Usher, who leads the team in average (.387), runs (10), and stolen bases (8).
Two of the ranked teams fared pretty well: No. 7 Miami rebounded from a tough weekend against Florida by beating South Florida and then sweeping Towson. No. 14 Duke blew out Air Force, then took two of three at the Minneapolis round-robin tournament.
Florida State, which entered last week ranked ninth, took two games from Florida Atlantic before coming up just short against Texas Tech—the fifth-ranked Red Raiders handed the Seminoles a pair of dramatic one-run losses. Then, No. 17 Georgia Tech was swept away by in-state rival No. 4 Georgia, losing a close game on Friday night before being outscored 21-3 in the next two games.
At the start of the year, Pittsburgh was pegged by coaches to finish seventh in the Coastal Division and second-to-last overall in the conference. The Panthers’ ACC schedule will be tough, but they’re racking up wins right now with an easier non-conference schedule. Pitt is 10-1—taking two games apiece from Central Connecticut State and Lehigh—and boast an eight-game winning streak.
Image Credit by N.C. State Athletic Communications