ACC Elo Ratings, Week 2
A weekly update on the conference: Upsets (by Top 25 rankings) reigned supreme over the weekend. Plus, an unexpected midweek preview.
For those not familiar: Elo ratings originated in chess and have been transplanted to other sports as a “measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent,” per FiveThirtyEight. Basically, the ratings are centered around 1500 (average) and teams go up and down with each matchup based on both the quality of opponent and how close the game was.
ACC Elo Ratings
All stats as of Wednesday, March 2 at 9:30 p.m. Visit WarrenNolan.com for more info.
Quick Hits
Rankings, then notes on three teams.
Here’s the latest look at the rankings from D1Baseball.com, Baseball America, and the NCBWA (National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association). It was a wild weekend in the conference, with N.C. State, Florida State, Duke, and Wake Forest all dropping out of rankings while North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and BC all jumped in.
Georgia Tech has taken over the pole position in the conference’s Elo Ratings on the strength of a five-game winning streak. The Yellow Jackets have been paced by a herculean effort from freshman catcher Kevin Parada, who has 11 hits, 6 extra-base hits, 10 RBIs, and seven runs scored through six games. Pair that with a weekend rotation that features Brant Hurter (10.2 IP, 9 K, 0.84 ERA) and Sam Crawford (9.2 IP, 0.93 ERA) and Georgia Tech is shaping up to be a legitimate force.
How about Pittsburgh? The Panthers aren’t in the Top 25 yet but if they keep playing the way they have been, they’re well on their way. Pitt is 6-1 with back-to-back weekend wins, including a sweep of Florida State. Mitch Myers was lights out in his Friday night start, earning ACC Pitcher of the Week honors for striking out 13 in six innings of work.
Notre Dame had a similarly impressive weekend as Pitt—even more so considering the Irish had their first three games cancelled. Notre Dame took two of three from previously-ranked Wake Forest, bouncing back from a 10-8 loss in the opener to win 5-4 and 10-0. Jared Miller led the way, going 7-for-13 with seven runs while Niko Kavadas clubbed two home runs.
Midweek Preview - vs. Rhode Island
Instead of opening their home schedule on March 10 against Holy Cross, the Eagles announced yesterday they’d be hosting Rhode Island this afternoon at 3 p.m. BC will still play the Rams in South Kingstown on April 21 (as was previously scheduled). Here’s a quick overview of Rhode Island, who is off to a 2-4 start to the year after being swept by then-No. 13 East Carolina before narrowly taking two of three from Old Dominion.
Picked to finish seventh in the Atlantic 10 by D1Baseball, the Rams returned a lot of veterans to their lineup but have struggled out of the gate—they’re hitting just .207 as a team with 64 strikeouts in six games. The starting pitching hasn’t been much better as the weekend rotation has a 12.52 ERA through six combined starts, but the Eagles will see a midweek starter out of the bullpen—which has had stronger numbers out of the gate. Still, URI is giving up 10.15 hits per game and should have some troubles with BC’s deep lineup. Another concerning trend for the Rams has been their defense—they’ve committed 11 errors in their first six games and their fielding percentage is good for 200th in the country.
Rhode Island head coach Raphael Cerrato has shuffled around his team’s lineup quite a bit—12 different players have at least 10 at bats—and just one regular has an OPS over .700. That’s Joe Fortin, who’s off to a 5-for-14 start with a double. Xavier Vargas is the only player to start all six games, and he’s got a team-high eight hits and three runs.
Images courtesy of Pitt, N.C. State, and URI Athletics